On 2019-07-04 17:15, Chris Woodbury via tz wrote:
Christian Bizouard has struck again (and exactly a week earlier than I was expecting).
IERS have been getting quicker at announcing no change during the first week of July, but January and adding leap seconds have been later and less consistent.
No new leap-second. I predict (after a careful perusal of Bulletin A) that we will see one in July 2020. i.e.: 3802550400 38 # 1 Jul 2020
The Bulletin A dUT1 prediction for 2020 July is only -0.39s and the rate about -0.01s/month, so if the rate does not increase much, dUT1 would only be about -0.45s in 2020 Dec, and -0.51s in 2021 July. That would suggest the next leap is more likely 3834086400 38 # 1 Jul 2021 MJD 59396 Unix @1625097600. If one happens in 2020, that would follow recent trends of 2.5-3.5 years between leaps, but if delayed until 2021, 2017 to 2021 would be the next largest gap after that from 1999 to 2006. -- Take care. Thanks, Brian Inglis, Calgary, Alberta, Canada This email may be disturbing to some readers as it contains too much technical detail. Reader discretion is advised.