[[--Translated text (en -> es)--]] Asunto: Re: Son de direcciones IPv4! De: dogwallah@gmail.com Hola, El sábado 15, 2012, acebo Raiche escribió:

Hi Carlton

There is a twist to the IPv4/v6 discussion - and it's about money (surprise!) Geoff Huston (our own internet pioneer/guru) asks why the carriers aren't migrating to v6 - and instead dealing with the address shortage (at least in the APNIC region) through NATing. As he explains, with NATing, the carriers gain information about what IP addresses are going where - information they can flog to advertisers.

Rgds, McTim

It's part of the money shift from the carriers in an analogue, circuit switched world where the carriers got the money, to an IP world where they are missing out and the revenue is going to the content providers. (the WCIT issue about accounting rates no longer providing the carriers with the money they used to collect is relevant here). So the carriers are making do with NATing instead of migrating to the v6 world where, once again, one IP address connects directly to another address and no NATting (and no collecting information about users) in between between (except in ! the usual circumstances of corporates, etc)

Holly

On 16/09/2012, at 6:11 AM, Carlton Samuels wrote:

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Hi Sala: You misinterpret my skepticism as denial. Wrong.

I'm there with you on all the facts you quote. Yes too, on all the trends you finger. My skepticism is born of the big 'the sky is falling' hoopla. And an analysis that is predicated on immediate and/or imminent scarcity. [Scarcity as in demand driven!]

For the last several years, I've studiously followed the ARIN policy discussions. Its only after you see the details and couple that to a few other facts that it jumps out at ya; the details just don't support the great alarm hurry-up-and-do-this. Look critically at some of the data in context of where access and demand are growing; Africa and Asia. Then have another think.

No, we will not have a collapse anytime soon. No, I doubt if IPv4 addresses will ever be totally exhausted. At least not if some of the policy positions I see being promoted in the ARIN region are implemented!

Yes, if and when that time comes, if someone belly up to your favourite RIR and asks for a **bank* *of addresses, here's the likely response, "well, we ain't got that kind. But here's another kind works just as well if not better! Machine you have might even be prepped for it, see. But you might have to do a few little things to let her fly". That conversation will not take place with a mom and pop operation, trust me. End user networks are not provisioned as the popular myth says.

Troll the lists and you will see this is one topic I've studiously stayed away from. Not because I don't understand the issues; I ran service provisioning businesses absolutely dependent on ready availability of IP addresses. It is because I remain underwhelmed by the hype.

The facts tend to the inconvenient. To the hype, that is. So we are agreed to disagree, albeit agreeably. Nope, the hype on this is over the top. And for the life of me I can't figure out why. In the Y2K storm I knew what it was; there were folks hellbent on picking some pockets.

Maybe its because I am at a point where I've learned to distrust all revealed wisdom and orthodoxy. So I might be the heretic here. Oh well, if salvation comes......

- Carlton

============================== Carlton A Samuels Mobile: 876-818-1799 *Strategy, Planning, Governance, Assessment & Turnaround* =============================

On Sat, Sep 15, 2012 at 2:21 PM, Salanieta T. Tamanikaiwaimaro < salanieta.tamanikaiwaimaro@gmail.com> wrote:

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Snip the whole thing always brings me back to that Y2K jingle.

I would disagree and here's why.

*Demographics* As I write this email, the world's population according to the Population Reference Bureau is 7,087,683,026 as at 6:18am Sunday morning on 16th September, 2012. The World Mortality Report of 2011 rates (produced by the Department of Economic Social Affairs by its Population division) shows that over time the mortality rates have generally gone down although there are still wide disparities in levels of mortality across regions. See:

http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/worldmortalityreport2011/World...

...

*End Users* Whilst there are 7 billion people on the planet, the World Internet Statistics (IWS) suggest that there are 2,267,233,742 internet users as

at

...

December, 31, 2011. See: http://www.internetworldstats.com/stats.htm.

These users distributed would be something like this:- AFRALO region - 6.2% APRALO region - 49% EURALO region - 22.1% LACRALO region - 10.4% NARALO region - 12%

*Can current supply meet demand?* As the push for Universal Service continues to grow as we have seen from recent trend

Cheers, McTim "A nombre indica lo que buscamos. Una dirección indica dónde está. Una ruta indica cómo llegar allí. "Jon Postel _______________________________________________ [[--Original text (en) http://mm.icann.org/transbot_archive/02f157e56a.html --]]